Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Obesity rates prediction

Obesity rates prediction - Obesity 42% prediction rate soars. About 42 percent of adults will face obesity and overweight problems during the next 40 years before leveling out in 2050. It's a new obesity projection from Harvard University and MIT.

The team used a sophisticated model that views obesity like an infectious disease. The research predicts that adult rates will rise for another 40 years before leveling out in 2050. And before reaching that plateau, 42 percent of adults will be obese, the team predicts.

For the last few years, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has placed the adult obesity rate at 34 percent, with another 34 percent of Americans overweight but not obese. "It's definitely true that the percent of obese people has slowed down," said study author Alison Hill, a graduate student in Harvard's Program for Evolutionary Dynamics, Biophysics Program. "But our results suggest it is not the end."

The study was published this week in the journal PLoS Computational Biology. The prediction is a "best-case" scenario, said Hill and Dr. David Rand, a research scientist at Harvard who was also involved in the study. That means the rate might rise even higher.

The disease is defined as having a body-mass index (BMI) of 30 or higher. For instance, a person 5-feet-5 inches tall who weighs 200 pounds has a BMI of 33 and is considered obese. The modeling was done after examining the spread of obesity via "social networks" in the long-running Framingham Heart Study Network. In the analysis, a social network includes family, co-workers, friends and neighbors. The spread of obesity among U.S. adults in recent decades due to social contacts can't be ignored, Hill and Rand said.
Title: Obesity rates prediction
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